What is the current probability for "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: No at 99.4%, Yes at 0.7%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $1,605,971 USD, with $1,518,061 in buy flow and $87,910 in sell flow.

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Created at: May 13, 2026 21:11Large trades TG Alerts

Current Odds

Live · 24h

99.4%No0.7%Yes

No0.994+$1,418,174 net

Vol $1.54MBuy $1,479,045Sell $60,871Share 95.9%

Yes0.007+$11,977 net

Vol $66.05KBuy $39,016Sell $27,039Share 4.1%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$1.61MBuy$1.52MSell$87.91K

Get API

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xc0…1fa8 2 buys · 23 sells · 1 condition	$13.48K	+100.00%	+117.20%
#2	0x8b…24a9 3 buys · 9 sells · 1 condition	$300.93	+100.00%	+0.33%
#3	0xa2…451a 7 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0xed…d2e5 24 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xaa…a08d 42 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0x2c…56dc 10 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xc6…4b9f 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x3c…1766 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x2b…376f 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x05…53fb 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x92…9a5b 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x9e…028a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xdc…dd7e 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x80…614d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x87…e210 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0xd1…a8ae 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x8e…ea48 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x45…81d2 5 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x61…1546 30 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x63…0183 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xc0…1fa8 2 buys · 23 sells · 1 condition	$13.48K	+100.00%	+117.20%
#2	0x8b…24a9 3 buys · 9 sells · 1 condition	$300.93	+100.00%	+0.33%
#3	0xa2…451a 7 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0xed…d2e5 24 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xaa…a08d 42 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0x2c…56dc 10 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xc6…4b9f 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x3c…1766 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x2b…376f 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x05…53fb 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x92…9a5b 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x9e…028a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xdc…dd7e 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x80…614d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x87…e210 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0xd1…a8ae 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x8e…ea48 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x45…81d2 5 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x61…1546 30 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x63…0183 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL