Will Republicans win Iowa and Michigan, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 1.1%, No at 98.9%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).