Will Republicans win Alaska and Iowa, and lose Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: No at 98.7%, Yes at 1.3%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).