What is the current probability for "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 15.9%, No at 84.0%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $6,278 USD, with $3,588 in buy flow and $2,690 in sell flow.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Created at: Jul 3, 2025 20:36Large trades TG Alerts

Current Odds

Live · 24h

15.9%Yes84.0%No

Yes0.159+$140 net

Vol $3.23KBuy $1,686Sell $1,546Share 51.5%

No0.840+$758 net

Vol $3.05KBuy $1,902Sell $1,144Share 48.5%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$6.28KBuy$3.59KSell$2.69K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xe1…f569 15 buys · 18 sells · 1 condition	$103.51	+100.00%	+0.30%
#2	0xe9…f261 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0xee…35f0 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x1f…7bce 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xc7…28fd 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xec…74e6 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x7d…462d 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xa6…14e2 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x2e…5a92 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0xed…2507 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x21…ce91 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xfb…06f7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x3f…f574 0 buys · 4 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xf2…7eab 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xdc…e438 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x41…66b7 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xd9…db0d 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xbc…7eec 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0xf9…6e6c 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xe1…b8f5 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xe1…f569 15 buys · 18 sells · 1 condition	$103.51	+100.00%	+0.30%
#2	0xe9…f261 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0xee…35f0 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x1f…7bce 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xc7…28fd 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xec…74e6 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x7d…462d 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xa6…14e2 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x2e…5a92 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0xed…2507 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x21…ce91 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xfb…06f7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x3f…f574 0 buys · 4 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xf2…7eab 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xdc…e438 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x41…66b7 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xd9…db0d 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xbc…7eec 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0xf9…6e6c 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xe1…b8f5 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL