What is the current probability for "Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 26.4%, No at 73.7%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $17,192 USD, with $7,448 in buy flow and $9,744 in sell flow.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Created at: Jul 3, 2025 20:36

Current Odds

Live · 24h

26.4%Yes73.7%No

Yes0.264-$608 net

Vol $11.28KBuy $5,335Sell $5,943Share 65.6%

No0.737-$1,689 net

Vol $5.91KBuy $2,112Sell $3,801Share 34.4%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$17.19KBuy$7.45KSell$9.74K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xfb…693e 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$6.45	+100.00%	+15.87%
#2	0xeb…b841 1 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	$5.27	+100.00%	+2.06%
#3	0xe9…e1d2 1 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	$2	+100.00%	+2.01%
#4	0xe2…0f59 7 buys · 15 sells · 1 condition	$9.16	+100.00%	+1.31%
#5	0x44…116b 2 buys · 5 sells · 1 condition	$2.01	+100.00%	+0.67%
#6	0x06…6689 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$0.004722	+100.00%	0.00%
#7	0x28…6f1e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x36…d459 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x09…79a0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x56…e6e7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x0f…b72d 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xff…c4c0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xcb…361e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xb2…03dc 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x3a…6d82 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x6a…9b3a 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x58…62fb 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xab…2fd5 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x06…0d0b 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x46…59a9 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xfb…693e 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$6.45	+100.00%	+15.87%
#2	0xeb…b841 1 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	$5.27	+100.00%	+2.06%
#3	0xe9…e1d2 1 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	$2	+100.00%	+2.01%
#4	0xe2…0f59 7 buys · 15 sells · 1 condition	$9.16	+100.00%	+1.31%
#5	0x44…116b 2 buys · 5 sells · 1 condition	$2.01	+100.00%	+0.67%
#6	0x06…6689 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$0.004722	+100.00%	0.00%
#7	0x28…6f1e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x36…d459 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x09…79a0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x56…e6e7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x0f…b72d 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xff…c4c0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xcb…361e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xb2…03dc 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x3a…6d82 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x6a…9b3a 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x58…62fb 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xab…2fd5 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x06…0d0b 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x46…59a9 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL