What is the current probability for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: No at 85.0%, Yes at 15.0%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $42,806 USD, with $21,827 in buy flow and $20,980 in sell flow.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Created at: May 16, 2026 00:04Large trades TG Alerts

Current Odds

Live · 24h

85.0%No15.0%Yes

No0.850+$724 net

Vol $42.1KBuy $21,413Sell $20,690Share 98.4%

Yes0.150+$124 net

Vol $703.46Buy $413Sell $290Share 1.6%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$42.81KBuy$21.83KSell$20.98K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xd8…d686 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#2	0xf5…8178 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0x97…3f3c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x4c…0cd4 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xee…35f0 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xac…2509 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x45…c504 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x59…e939 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xe6…3771 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x22…e0e7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x8b…86e6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x88…08a9 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x0b…deb6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x2b…e411 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xae…150c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0xad…ef24 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x78…9e91 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x50…04d4 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x98…c3bd 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x35…157d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xd8…d686 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#2	0xf5…8178 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0x97…3f3c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x4c…0cd4 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xee…35f0 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xac…2509 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x45…c504 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x59…e939 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xe6…3771 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x22…e0e7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x8b…86e6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x88…08a9 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x0b…deb6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x2b…e411 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xae…150c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0xad…ef24 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x78…9e91 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x50…04d4 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x98…c3bd 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x35…157d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL