What is the current probability for "Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 22.0%, No at 77.9%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $10,619 USD, with $8,504 in buy flow and $2,116 in sell flow.

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Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Created at: Jul 8, 2025 19:05Large trades TG Alerts

Current Odds

Live · 24h

22.0%Yes77.9%No

Yes0.220+$1,410 net

Vol $5.43KBuy $3,418Sell $2,008Share 51.1%

No0.779+$4,978 net

Vol $5.19KBuy $5,085Sell $108Share 48.9%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$10.62KBuy$8.5KSell$2.12K

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Realized PnL

Win rate

0.00%

Profitable Traders

0/20

Avg realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0x2e…f703 7 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#2	0x10…8652 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0xc7…2e5b 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x52…2f52 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xe6…9cf9 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0x7c…47f4 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xcb…50e1 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x2d…e3f5 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	0.00%	0.00%
#9	0x8f…af9e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x16…ef29 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x5a…ae0c 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x0f…665a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x0f…bc71 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xdb…6a94 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xa3…5106 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0xea…755a 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xba…4898 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x22…c02d 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0xa0…1848 0 buys · 5 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xa8…4474 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%