What is the current probability for "Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: No at 91.0%, Yes at 8.0%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $389,843 USD, with $212,543 in buy flow and $177,300 in sell flow.

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Created at: Dec 17, 2025 22:44

Current Odds

Live · 24h

91.0%No8.0%Yes

No0.910+$32,330 net

Vol $385.65KBuy $208,991Sell $176,660Share 98.9%

Yes0.080+$2,912 net

Vol $4.19KBuy $3,552Sell $640Share 1.1%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$389.84KBuy$212.54KSell$177.3K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xe1…996b 1 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$27.63K	+100.00%	+1,027.76%
#2	0x0c…2784 1 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	$199.92	+100.00%	+355.04%
#3	0xe9…50f1 1 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	$35.57	+100.00%	+7.18%
#4	0x05…6e12 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xe0…8ff5 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0x7b…fb9d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x26…7ee2 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xce…bd25 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x99…c89b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0xb0…851c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x21…1f99 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xe2…c049 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xac…fedd 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xff…c347 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x52…6e58 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x56…e469 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x61…ca45 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xc3…b7ac 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x24…9bf4 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x9c…e7cf 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xe1…996b 1 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$27.63K	+100.00%	+1,027.76%
#2	0x0c…2784 1 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	$199.92	+100.00%	+355.04%
#3	0xe9…50f1 1 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	$35.57	+100.00%	+7.18%
#4	0x05…6e12 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xe0…8ff5 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0x7b…fb9d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x26…7ee2 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xce…bd25 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x99…c89b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0xb0…851c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x21…1f99 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xe2…c049 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xac…fedd 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xff…c347 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x52…6e58 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x56…e469 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x61…ca45 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xc3…b7ac 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x24…9bf4 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x9c…e7cf 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL