What is the current probability for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 13.0%, No at 86.5%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $776,419 USD, with $520,360 in buy flow and $256,060 in sell flow.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Created at: Apr 8, 2026 16:17Set TG Alert

Current Odds

Live · 24h

86.5%No13.0%Yes

No0.865+$230,362 net

Vol $708.94KBuy $469,652Sell $239,290Share 91.3%

Yes0.130+$33,938 net

Vol $67.48KBuy $50,708Sell $16,770Share 8.7%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$776.42KBuy$520.36KSell$256.06K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xfb…77ee 2 buys · 4 sells · 1 condition	$6.22K	+100.00%	+127.48%
#2	0x3b…e964 1 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	$2.18K	+100.00%	+83.39%
#3	0xe1…996b 3 buys · 12 sells · 1 condition	$5.04K	+100.00%	+18.89%
#4	0x73…c54c 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$70.13	+100.00%	+8.11%
#5	0x6b…0517 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xc5…7fdf 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x5e…92a7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x0a…bc2a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xc3…83e0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x83…4ace 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0xf8…5274 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x08…7525 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x20…e2b0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x8f…eab9 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x07…184b 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x57…7bec 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xf6…5700 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x6c…c204 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x56…10b0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x04…f584 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xfb…77ee 2 buys · 4 sells · 1 condition	$6.22K	+100.00%	+127.48%
#2	0x3b…e964 1 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	$2.18K	+100.00%	+83.39%
#3	0xe1…996b 3 buys · 12 sells · 1 condition	$5.04K	+100.00%	+18.89%
#4	0x73…c54c 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$70.13	+100.00%	+8.11%
#5	0x6b…0517 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xc5…7fdf 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0x5e…92a7 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x0a…bc2a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xc3…83e0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x83…4ace 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0xf8…5274 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x08…7525 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x20…e2b0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x8f…eab9 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x07…184b 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x57…7bec 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xf6…5700 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0x6c…c204 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x56…10b0 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0x04…f584 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL