What is the current probability for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 5.0%, No at 95.9%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $2,078,112 USD, with $1,490,942 in buy flow and $587,170 in sell flow.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Created at: May 22, 2026 21:27TG Alerts

Current Odds

Live · 24h

95.9%No5.0%Yes

No0.959+$846,966 net

Vol $1.88MBuy $1,362,094Sell $515,129Share 90.3%

Yes0.050+$56,806 net

Vol $200.89KBuy $128,847Sell $72,042Share 9.7%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$2.08MBuy$1.49MSell$587.17K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xf0…dde5 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$2.78K	+100.00%	+47.29%
#2	0x58…8774 8 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$1.34K	+100.00%	+6.85%
#3	0x94…1225 3 buys · 5 sells · 1 condition	$836.05	+100.00%	+2.99%
#4	0xbc…3d59 8 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$1.02K	+100.00%	+0.47%
#5	0x61…6e8b 7 buys · 8 sells · 1 condition	$2.77K	+100.00%	+0.28%
#6	0x0f…5bfb 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xde…5f4b 0 buys · 21 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x44…02a4 0 buys · 8 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x0a…3c95 9 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x58…55a2 5 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x7c…5c6b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x87…4174 11 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x44…879e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xbf…c390 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xee…9bd7 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x71…d9eb 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x0e…4f7b 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xb4…9b90 0 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x4e…d859 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xa6…4a09 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xf0…dde5 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$2.78K	+100.00%	+47.29%
#2	0x58…8774 8 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$1.34K	+100.00%	+6.85%
#3	0x94…1225 3 buys · 5 sells · 1 condition	$836.05	+100.00%	+2.99%
#4	0xbc…3d59 8 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$1.02K	+100.00%	+0.47%
#5	0x61…6e8b 7 buys · 8 sells · 1 condition	$2.77K	+100.00%	+0.28%
#6	0x0f…5bfb 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xde…5f4b 0 buys · 21 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x44…02a4 0 buys · 8 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x0a…3c95 9 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x58…55a2 5 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x7c…5c6b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x87…4174 11 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x44…879e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0xbf…c390 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xee…9bd7 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x71…d9eb 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x0e…4f7b 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xb4…9b90 0 buys · 3 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x4e…d859 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xa6…4a09 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL