What is the current probability for "US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 11.0%, No at 88.8%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $2,279,144 USD, with $1,891,994 in buy flow and $387,150 in sell flow.

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Created at: May 15, 2026 18:59TG Alerts

Current Odds

Live · 24h

88.8%No11.0%Yes

No0.888+$1,313,473 net

Vol $1.94MBuy $1,627,702Sell $314,229Share 85.2%

Yes0.110+$191,371 net

Vol $337.21KBuy $264,292Sell $72,921Share 14.8%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$2.28MBuy$1.89MSell$387.15K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xb2…4dac 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$1.93K	+100.00%	+9.38%
#2	0xbd…084e 2 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$619.14	+100.00%	+6.27%
#3	0xb2…8510 68 buys · 26 sells · 1 condition	$79.23K	+100.00%	+2.95%
#4	0x12…f2a8 6 buys · 11 sells · 1 condition	$1.31K	+100.00%	+2.43%
#5	0x3a…0f72 5 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	$2.08K	+100.00%	+2.41%
#6	0xf8…2202 4 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$568.32	+100.00%	+1.66%
#7	0xc9…02fc 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xe8…7d85 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x27…508b 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x8b…110b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0xcd…68f5 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xf3…ed0d 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xa7…42d1 5 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x25…9296 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x70…51f9 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x9d…216b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xd3…7236 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xae…4806 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x91…c0f6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xef…db70 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xb2…4dac 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$1.93K	+100.00%	+9.38%
#2	0xbd…084e 2 buys · 6 sells · 1 condition	$619.14	+100.00%	+6.27%
#3	0xb2…8510 68 buys · 26 sells · 1 condition	$79.23K	+100.00%	+2.95%
#4	0x12…f2a8 6 buys · 11 sells · 1 condition	$1.31K	+100.00%	+2.43%
#5	0x3a…0f72 5 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	$2.08K	+100.00%	+2.41%
#6	0xf8…2202 4 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$568.32	+100.00%	+1.66%
#7	0xc9…02fc 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xe8…7d85 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x27…508b 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x8b…110b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0xcd…68f5 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xf3…ed0d 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0xa7…42d1 5 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x25…9296 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x70…51f9 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x9d…216b 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xd3…7236 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#18	0xae…4806 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#19	0x91…c0f6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#20	0xef…db70 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL