What is the current probability for "US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 0.2%, No at 99.9%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $4,887,221 USD, with $4,074,640 in buy flow and $812,581 in sell flow.

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Created at: Apr 20, 2026 19:35

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between t…

Current Odds

Live · 24h

99.9%No0.2%Yes

No0.999+$3,242,370 net

Vol $4.8MBuy $4,023,183Sell $780,813Share 98.3%

Yes0.002+$19,688 net

Vol $83.22KBuy $51,456Sell $31,768Share 1.7%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$4.89MBuy$4.07MSell$812.58K

Get API

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0x4b…982e 13 buys · 33 sells · 1 condition	$15.43K	+100.00%	+17.24%
#2	0x12…61b0 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0x79…bb66 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x01…5aaa 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xab…5cac 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xa9…80b9 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xec…5da3 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xa7…2986 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xe5…600c 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0xba…1ab2 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x55…f161 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x64…c4b6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x22…d03d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x46…246c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xb7…b54a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x1d…453d 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x7a…5a42 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0x4b…982e 13 buys · 33 sells · 1 condition	$15.43K	+100.00%	+17.24%
#2	0x12…61b0 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0x79…bb66 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x01…5aaa 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xab…5cac 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xa9…80b9 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xec…5da3 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0xa7…2986 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xe5…600c 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0xba…1ab2 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x55…f161 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0x64…c4b6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x22…d03d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x46…246c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xb7…b54a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x1d…453d 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x7a…5a42 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL