What is the current probability for "Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: No at 99.6%, Yes at 0.4%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $196,641 USD, with $102,794 in buy flow and $93,848 in sell flow.

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Created at: Mar 6, 2026 21:08

Current Odds

Live · 24h

99.6%No0.4%Yes

No0.996+$8,899 net

Vol $196.58KBuy $102,739Sell $93,840Share 100.0%

Yes0.004+$47 net

Vol $62.6Buy $55Sell $8Share 0.0%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$196.64KBuy$102.79KSell$93.85K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xdd…52d6 2 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$29.6K	+100.00%	+32,924.93%
#2	0xe1…996b 1 buys · 7 sells · 1 condition	$4K	+100.00%	+133.19%
#3	0x1d…46b8 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$511.45	+100.00%	+2.45%
#4	0x34…2771 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$0.2	+100.00%	0.00%
#5	0x0c…a146 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$0.03	+100.00%	0.00%
#6	0x03…cf07 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xb1…f5a9 8 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x05…20b1 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xe9…c365 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x38…9110 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0xa5…501e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xbf…ac81 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x21…0b97 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x90…c0fc 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x74…91c4 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x78…1dda 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x11…171e 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0xdd…52d6 2 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$29.6K	+100.00%	+32,924.93%
#2	0xe1…996b 1 buys · 7 sells · 1 condition	$4K	+100.00%	+133.19%
#3	0x1d…46b8 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$511.45	+100.00%	+2.45%
#4	0x34…2771 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$0.2	+100.00%	0.00%
#5	0x0c…a146 1 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$0.03	+100.00%	0.00%
#6	0x03…cf07 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xb1…f5a9 8 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x05…20b1 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0xe9…c365 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x38…9110 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0xa5…501e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xbf…ac81 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x21…0b97 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x90…c0fc 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0x74…91c4 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x78…1dda 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0x11…171e 0 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL