Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026?"?

Accepted Answer

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: No at 0.1%, Yes at 99.9%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

Question 2

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Accepted Answer

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after th

Question 3

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

Accepted Answer

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $17,369,646 USD, with $17,021,331 in buy flow and $348,315 in sell flow.

Current Odds

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