What is the current probability for "US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?"?

Based on the latest on-chain trades, the current probability is: Yes at 0.2%, No at 99.8%. These odds are derived from the last traded price of each outcome token on Polymarket.

How is this Polymarket question resolved?

Polymarket questions are resolved based on real-world outcomes verified by designated resolution sources. Once resolved, YES token holders receive $1 and NO token holders receive $0 (or vice versa).

What is the 24h trading volume for this Polymarket market?

The 24-hour trading volume for this Polymarket prediction market is $4,755,001 USD, with $3,892,816 in buy flow and $862,184 in sell flow.

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Created at: Apr 20, 2026 19:35

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran announced on April 7, 2026, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed extension to the halt in direct military engagement between t…

Current Odds

Live · 24h

99.8%No0.2%Yes

No0.998+$3,007,761 net

Vol $4.64MBuy $3,822,384Sell $814,623Share 97.5%

Yes0.002+$22,871 net

Vol $117.99KBuy $70,432Sell $47,562Share 2.5%

■ Buy ■ Sell · % = implied probability · Net = buy − sell (24h)

Volume$4.76MBuy$3.89MSell$862.18K

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Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0x4b…982e 6 buys · 42 sells · 1 condition	$29.9K	+100.00%	+1,577.13%
#2	0x79…bb66 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0x01…5aaa 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x66…cc4e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xc8…93ea 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xcb…79e7 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xe5…600c 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x12…61b0 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x55…f161 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x22…d03d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x64…c4b6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xab…5cac 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x1d…453d 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x46…246c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xb7…b54a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x7a…5a42 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xec…5da3 2 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$-25.51K	0.00%	-1.00%

Rank	Trader	Realized (USD)	Win %	PnL %
#1	0x4b…982e 6 buys · 42 sells · 1 condition	$29.9K	+100.00%	+1,577.13%
#2	0x79…bb66 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#3	0x01…5aaa 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#4	0x66…cc4e 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#5	0xc8…93ea 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#6	0xcb…79e7 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#7	0xe5…600c 4 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#8	0x12…61b0 3 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#9	0x55…f161 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#10	0x22…d03d 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#11	0x64…c4b6 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#12	0xab…5cac 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#13	0x1d…453d 2 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#14	0x46…246c 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#15	0xb7…b54a 1 buys · 0 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#16	0x7a…5a42 0 buys · 2 sells · 1 condition	-	—	0.00%
#17	0xec…5da3 2 buys · 1 sells · 1 condition	$-25.51K	0.00%	-1.00%

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Current Odds

Current Odds

Top Traders by Realized PnL

Top Traders by Realized PnL